Company Description: Exxon Mobil Corp., formed through the merger of Exxon and Mobil in late 1999, is the world's largest publicly owned integrated oil company.
Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number
XOM is trading at a discount to 1.), 3.) and 4.) above. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 45.0% discount to its calculated fair value of $78.96. XOM earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
XOM earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. XOM earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1882 and has increased its dividend payments for 38 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA
XOM earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of $2,839. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as XOM has. The stock's current yield of 8.01% exceeds the 2.74% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.
Peers: The company's peer group includes: BP plc (BP) with a 5.2% yield, Chevron Corp. (CVX) with a 5.7% yield and ConocoPhillips (COP) with a 4.0% yield.
Conclusion: XOM earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks XOM as a 4-Star Strong stock.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $88.30 before XOM's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 38 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 3.9%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is -7.2%. This dividend growth rate is below the 1.5% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. XOM has a risk rating of 2.25 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.
With a relentless pursuit of efficiency via technology and operational improvement, XOM sets itself apart from other super-majors and has delivered higher returns on capital. XOM has enjoyed superior earnings and dividend growth and stability over the years, but is now struggling in this lower consumption era. The stock is trading below my calculated fair value of $78.96 and has good dividend metrics, except for its free cash flow payout at 584% (up from 181%). I will wait for a more opportune time before adding to my position in the stock.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in XOM (0.2% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio) and was long in CVX.
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Tags: XOM, BP, CVX, COP,
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