Company Description: Emerson Electric Co. designs and supplies product technology, and delivers engineering services and solutions to a wide range of industrial, commercial and consumer markets around the world.
Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number
EMR is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. Since EMR's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 88.0% premium to its calculated fair value of $45.4. EMR did not earn any Stars in this section.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
EMR earned one Star in this section for 1.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1947 and has increased its dividend payments for 65 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA
The negative NPV MMA Diff. means that on a NPV basis the dividend earnings from an investment in EMR would be less than a similar amount invested in MMA earning a 20-year average rate of 2.74%. If EMR grows its dividend at 1.0% per year, it will never equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 2.74%.
Peers: The company's peer group includes: Espey Manufacturing & Electronics Corp. (ESP) with a 5.1% yield, ABB Ltd. (ABB) with a 2.8% yield and Regal Beloit Corporation (RBC) with a 0.9% yield.
Conclusion: EMR did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of one Star. This quantitatively ranks EMR as a 1-Star Very Weak stock.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $49.15 before EMR's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 65 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 4.1%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 6.7%. This dividend growth rate is higher than the 1.0% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. EMR has a risk rating of 1.75 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.
EMR holds a broad portfolio of industrial businesses with a strong competitive positions. The company has a reputation for providing consistent returns to its investors. The company's advantages include globally branded platforms, new products in the pipeline. Its free cash flow payout of 42% (down from 58%) is well below my maximum acceptable level, and debt to total capital of 48% (up from 31%) is slightly above my preferred maximum. The stock is currently trading above my calculated fair value price of $45.40, so I will wait for a more opportune time before significantly adding to my position.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in EMR (2.5% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio).
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