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Friday, April 16, 2021

3M Co. (MMM) Dividend Stock Analysis

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of 3M Company (MMM). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: 3M Co. provides enhanced product functionality in electronics, health care, industrial, consumer, office, telecommunications, safety & security and other markets via coatings, sealants, adhesives and other chemical additives.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

MMM is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. Since MMM's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 48.6% premium to its calculated fair value of $133.26. MMM did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

MMM earned two Stars in this section for 1.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. MMM earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1916 and has increased its dividend payments for 63 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The NPV MMA Diff. of the $111 is below the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as MMM has. The stock's current yield of 2.99% exceeds the 2.74% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Peers: The company's peer group includes: General Electric Co. (GE) with a 0.3% yield, Raven Industries Inc. (RAVN) with a 0.0% yield and Carlisle Companies Inc. (CSL) with a 1.2% yield.

Conclusion: MMM did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of two Stars. This quantitatively ranks MMM as a 2-Star Weak stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $139.92 before MMM's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 63 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 4.2%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 4.4%. This dividend growth rate is higher with the 1.7% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. MMM has a risk rating of 1.75 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.

MMM is the leader in many of the markets its serves with a culture that thrives on innovation. Its bottom-line focus and low-cost manufacturing have built a wide moat around its core businesses. The company has enjoyed strong historical earnings, dividend growth and free cash flow, with only modest capital investment.

The company has consistently returned significant cash to its shareholders through share repurchase and dividends. Its Free Cash Flow Payout of 52% (down from 61%) is below my maximum of 60%, and its Debt to Total Capital of 60% (down from previous 75%) is above my maximum of 45%. MMM is a great company with an excellent future. The stock is currently trading above my calculated fair value of $133.26. I will continue to wait for better opportunities to add to my position, as my allocation allows.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in MMM (0.7% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio).

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