Company Description: Sysco Corporation is a large distributor of food and related products, primarily to the foodservice or food-away-from-home industry.
Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number
SYY is trading at a discount to only 3.) above. Since SYY's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. When also considering the NPV MMA Differential, the stock is trading at a 63.4% premium to its calculated fair value of $46.35. SYY did not earn any Stars in this section.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
SYY earned one Star in this section for 1.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1970 and has increased its dividend payments for 52 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA
The negative NPV MMA Diff. means that on a NPV basis the dividend earnings from an investment in SYY would be less than a similar amount invested in MMA earning a 20-year average rate of 3.75%. If SYY grows its dividend at 3.1% per year, it will never equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.75%.
Peers: The company’s peer group includes: G. Willi Food-International Ltd. (WILC) with a 9.9% yield and United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) with a 0.0% yield.
Conclusion: SYY did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of one Star. This quantitatively ranks SYY as a 1-Star Very Weak stock.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $48.46 before SYY's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 52 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 4.1%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 7.6%. This dividend growth rate is higher than the 3.1% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. SYY has a risk rating of 1.75 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.
SYY operates in a relatively stable industry and has the largest market share in the United States and Canada. SYY has developed an extensive distribution network that no other competitor has been able to replicate. SYY consults with its customers on how they can drive sales and minimize costs.
The stock is trading above my fair value price of $46.35. Its debt to total capital of 84% (down from 91%) is above my maximum level. However, its free cash flow payout of 50% (down from 87%) is well below my maximun level of 60%. I will continue to wait until the SYY's dividend fundamentals improve before adding to my position.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in SYY (1.4% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio).
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Tags: SYY, WILC, SPTN, UNFI,